Arsenal and Manchester City’s eliminations from the Champions League means English clubs face an uphill battle to earn an extra qualification spot for next season.
As part of the new Champions League format, UEFA are expanding the number of teams involved in the competition from 32 to 36.
Two of these extra spots will be given to nations with the highest UEFA co-efficient ranking, which is based on performances in European competitions this season.
Heading into the current round of fixtures, Italy held a comfortable lead at the top of the rankings, with a small gap between second-placed Germany and third-placed England.
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The co-efficient ratings before this week’s fixtures (
UEFA)
Heading into the week, three German teams – Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen – remained in Europe, while England had five teams – Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa – still involved.
Liverpool and West Ham, though, are losing 3-0 and 2-0 on aggregate respectively ahead of their Europa League second legs, with the Hammers directly up against German opposition in Leverkusen.
And with the defeats suffered by Arsenal and City to Bayern and Real Madrid respectively, England now faces a struggle to secure the prized fifth-place spot.
The UEFA co-efficients after Tuesday and Wednesday’s matches (
UEFA)
So how can England still earn enough co-efficient points?
The simple answer is – the race is almost over. Both Liverpool and West Ham need to overturn their first leg deficits to progress to the semi-finals of the Europa League.
And Aston Villa are also likely to need to win the Europa Conference League in order to give England a fighting chance.
But if Leverkusen beat West Ham, the dream is effectively done – with England therefore needing their teams to produce one of the most memorable nights in European history when the games take place tonight.
One small consolation for England is that the other countries in the rankings – including Spain and France – the story is already over, making it a two-horse race.